Reframing the pilot shortage: Why owning the pipeline is the key
Boeing’s 2025 Pilot and Technician Outlook projects a need for 660,000 new commercial pilots by 2044. It’s a familiar headline, one that returns each year with growing urgency. But the conversation can’t stop at flights being grounded and more recruitment needed. Chasing the same shrinking pool of qualified crew is like bailing water from a sinking ship without sealing the leak. To move forward, airlines must take early, long-term ownership of the pilot pipeline by investing smarter, training differently, and thinking ahead.
The challenge is rooted in a fundamental gap between rising demand and limited training capacity. According to Boeing, global aviation will require 2.37 million new professionals over the next two decades; 660,000 of these will be pilots, with nearly two-thirds needed simply to replace retiring or exiting crew. This isn’t just about growth, but rather about maintaining day-to-day operations in a shifting demographic and technological landscape. While demand for air travel has returned, training throughput has not. Flight school capacity is tight, and entry costs remain high. For many future pilots, the barrier isn’t interest, it’s access. Without meaningful investment in training infrastructure and accessibility, the gap will continue to grow, no matter how strong the market outlook.
However, there are promising signs that training is starting to evolve to meet this challenge. Some airlines are already using new tools to ease pressure on instructors and simulators, and the results are promising. Brussels Airlines, for instance, has become the first in the Lufthansa Group to replace traditional cockpit trainers with Virtual Reality for part of the A320 type rating, with two crews completing an authority-approved, fully immersive VR program. In the U.S., CommuteAir trains ERJ-145 pilots in procedures and flows using FlightDeckToGo™ and Meta Quest 3 headsets, allowing them to prepare off-site and freeing up simulator time for advanced training. These examples show how tech-enabled, competency-based training can boost throughput without compromising quality. As Boeing notes, “training methodologies continue to evolve toward a holistic approach focused on competencies and outcomes,” which in practical terms means smarter use of resources and faster progress for trainees.
While technology is a critical part of the solution, training capacity itself must also grow, and more airlines are now taking direct ownership of that challenge. In South Asia, one of the fastest-growing regions for pilot demand, Air India is building a new Flight Training Organization scheduled to open in 2026, which will offer a consistent pipeline of pilots trained to its own standards.
At AAP Aviation, we recognized this shift early. Our acquisition of Pilot Flight Academy (PFA) laid the foundation for a long-term, structured cadet program strategy. Today, we support cadets for airlines including Icelandair and ANA, and have partnered with AAP Line Aviation to deliver high-quality Airbus and ATR training aligned with operational needs. Graduates of our programs are now flying for carriers such as SAS, Widerøe, KLM and Emirates.
To ensure accessibility, we also offer full financial support through the Pilot Flight Academy Scholarship Program - designed to remove cost as a barrier and open the profession to a broader, more diverse talent pool.
These long-term investments stand in contrast to temporary fixes like pilot secondment. While secondment can be effective for relieving immediate staffing shortages, it is a reactive measure, not a proactive one. It doesn’t grow the total pilot pool; it simply redistributes existing talent. When secondees are recalled, the cracks often show. Used strategically, secondment can buy time, but that time must be used to build something more permanent.
The shortage is no longer up for debate; the question is how, and how soon, operators will take action. What we’re seeing is the beginning of a strategic shift that involves securing training capacity through partnerships or ownership, adopting scalable methods like VR, building cadet programs aligned with real operational needs, lowering the barrier to entry with scholarships, and using secondment sparingly rather than structurally. Most importantly, this shift is about making the profession attractive again.
Aircraft are being delivered and routes are expanding, but without investment in training, pilot availability remains the constraint that holds everything else back. Is your airline still relying on short-term fixes? Or are you building the systems that will sustain growth for the next 20 years?
This analysis is an excerpt from the AAP Aviation Perspective, our biweekly newsletter on LinkedIn where we explore the key strategic issues facing the aviation industry. Subscribe on LinkedIn and never miss an update.